Reward leaderboard

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1	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?3 outcomes	$6K	14	$5.2K	0.5%	3.6%	$823.9K	12d
2	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	$1.4K	11	$1.2K	1.0%	0.0%	$101.5K	15d
3	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	$1K	10	$904	0.1%	0.5%	$509.3K	6d
4	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	$1K	12	$877	1.0%	0.0%	$456K	6d
5	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	$975	11	$869	1.0%	1.0%	$278.9K	15d
6	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	$1K	14	$861	1.0%	2.0%	$646.2K	9d
7	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	$1K	14	$857	1.0%	2.0%	$170.1K	15d
8	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	$1K	16	$838	1.0%	3.0%	$666.7K	9d
9	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	$500	11	$443	0.5%	0.4%	$48.3K	15d
10	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	$500	14	$431	0.6%	0.7%	$24.6K	15d
11	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	$500	14	$429	1.0%	0.0%	$21.4K	15d
12	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	$500	15	$425	0.8%	0.2%	$12.1K	15d
13	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	$500	15	$425	0.3%	0.7%	$7.8K	15d
14	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	$500	16	$421	0.9%	0.6%	$15.3K	15d
15	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	$500	22	$389	0.5%	2.3%	$2.5K	15d
16	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Thin	$500	24	$380	0.6%	0.4%	$173	15d
17	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Thin	$500	24	$379	0.3%	0.0%	$58	15d
18	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	$444	17	$370	0.1%	1.8%	$35.7K	8d
19	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	$480	23	$368	1.0%	3.0%	$72.2K	6d
20	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	$520	35	$338	3.0%	3.0%	$13.6K	6d
21	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	$400	26	$296	1.0%	5.5%	$15K	2mo
22	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?2 outcomes	$508	43	$292	1.7%	8.3%	$57.4K	3d
23	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	$375	24	$286	1.0%	4.0%	$81.4K	8d
24	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	$375	25	$282	1.0%	4.0%	$48K	8d
25	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	$323	14	$279	1.0%	0.0%	$12.6K	1mo
26	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	$300	7	$278	0.3%	1.3%	$220.8K	2mo
27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	$300	7	$278	1.0%	0.0%	$205.1K	2mo
28	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	$302	11	$268	0.1%	2.2%	$72K	6mo
29	Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?Thin	$300	16	$253	0.1%	0.1%	$998	8mo
30	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?2 outcomes	$300	16	$253	1.0%	1.0%	$12.6K	2.2y
31	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	$286	14	$247	1.0%	1.0%	$77.5K	15d
32	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	$300	18	$245	1.0%	1.0%	$14.3K	12d
33	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	$258	14	$222	1.0%	1.0%	$65.5K	15d
34	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	$242	10	$218	1.0%	0.0%	$137K	15d
35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	$227	12	$201	1.0%	0.0%	$284K	8d
36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	$214	12	$189	1.0%	1.0%	$180.5K	15d
37	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	$259	33	$173	1.0%	7.0%	$57.4K	6d
38	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?2 outcomes	$200	15	$170	1.0%	2.0%	$58.5K	2mo
39	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Thin	$200	23	$153	1.0%	0.0%	$131	2mo
40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	$200	33	$134	2.0%	0.0%	$7.2K	11h
41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 20?	$200	35	$130	2.0%	0.0%	$2.4K	13h
42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 20?	$226	63	$84	10.0%	7.0%	$4.7K	3h
43	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 20?	$200	77	$47	4.0%	46.5%	$6.5K	3h
44	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 20?	$200	81	$38	9.0%	42.0%	$5.2K	3h
45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 20?	$200	84	$32	5.0%	35.0%	$1.3K	3h

Rank by adj. reward across loaded markets · Risk score 0–100, lower is safer · Adj. reward = daily reward pool discounted by risk — a ranking guide, not a per-dollar earnings figure.

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