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Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ken Paxton (R) · Resolves Nov 4, 2026 · Rank #35 of 149 by adj. reward

Risk score

14/ 100Low risk
Volatility+2.3 pts
24h move 1.0%severity 7/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+5.9 pts
24h volume $66.5Kseverity 20/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+4.0 pts
spread 1.0%severity 20/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+1.8 pts
resolves in 15dseverity 12/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$258
Adj. reward
$222
Spread
1.0%
24h move
1.0%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$66.5K
Resolves
15d
Outcome prices
Yes 39¢ · No 62¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$0.78/ day

Below the $1 daily minimum — this would not be paid out.

Your score
358
Competing
117799
Your share
0.3%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$117.8K of competing score currently resting within 6.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $258/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 6.5¢, min size $100, midpoint 0.39, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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Non-custodial, read-only analytics for Polymarket liquidity rewards. Flowlayer never holds, moves, or touches your funds.

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