Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

Oil ≥ $85; R Senate · Resolves Nov 4, 2026 · Rank #10 of 149 by adj. reward

Risk score

12.8/ 100Low risk

Volatility+1.2 pts

24h move 0.5%severity 3/100 · weight 35%

Liquidity / depth+9.0 pts

24h volume $16Kseverity 30/100 · weight 30%

Spread width+0.8 pts

spread 0.2%severity 4/100 · weight 20%

Time to resolution+1.8 pts

resolves in 15dseverity 12/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Capital posted

Target spread (max 3.5¢)

1.0¢

Quote

Projected daily reward

$6.80/ day

Your score: 255
Competing: 18492
Your share: 1.4%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$18.5K of competing score currently resting within 3.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $500/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 3.5¢, min size $200, midpoint 0.32, pool) is live from Polymarket.