Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

Oil ≥ $85; D Senate · Resolves Nov 4, 2026 · Rank #11 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

13.1/ 100Low risk

Volatility+1.9 pts

24h move 0.8%severity 5/100 · weight 35%

Liquidity / depth+8.6 pts

24h volume $19.3Kseverity 29/100 · weight 30%

Spread width+0.8 pts

spread 0.2%severity 4/100 · weight 20%

Time to resolution+1.8 pts

resolves in 15dseverity 12/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Capital posted

Target spread (max 3.5¢)

1.0¢

Quote

Projected daily reward

$2.64/ day

Your score: 255
Competing: 48015
Your share: 0.5%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$48K of competing score currently resting within 3.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $500/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 3.5¢, min size $200, midpoint 0.60, pool) is live from Polymarket.