Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Resolves Oct 26, 2026 · Rank #6 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

12.6/ 100Low risk

Volatility+0.0 pts

24h move 0.0%severity 0/100 · weight 35%

Liquidity / depth+2.0 pts

24h volume $404.5Kseverity 7/100 · weight 30%

Spread width+4.0 pts

spread 1.0%severity 20/100 · weight 20%

Time to resolution+6.6 pts

resolves in 6dseverity 44/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Capital posted

Target spread (max 6.5¢)

1.0¢

Quote

Projected daily reward

$4.16/ day

Your score: 358
Competing: 85746
Your share: 0.4%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$85.7K of competing score currently resting within 6.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $1K/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 6.5¢, min size $150, midpoint 0.23, pool) is live from Polymarket.