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Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?

December 31, 2026 · Resolves Jul 1, 2027 · Rank #31 of 149 by adj. reward

Risk score

15.5/ 100Low risk
Volatility+0.1 pts
24h move 0.1%severity 0/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+15.0 pts
24h volume $998severity 50/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+0.4 pts
spread 0.1%severity 2/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+0.0 pts
resolves in 8moseverity 0/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$300
Adj. reward
$253
Spread
0.1%
24h move
0.1%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$998
Resolves
8mo
Outcome prices
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$15.46/ day
Your score
302
Competing
5566
Your share
5.2%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$5.6K of competing score currently resting within 4.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $300/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 4.5¢, min size $200, midpoint 0.03, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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