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Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

Oil ≥ $80; R Senate · Resolves Nov 4, 2026 · Rank #16 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

21.6/ 100Low risk
Volatility+5.6 pts
24h move 2.4%severity 16/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+13.0 pts
24h volume $2.5Kseverity 43/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+1.2 pts
spread 0.3%severity 6/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+1.8 pts
resolves in 15dseverity 12/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$500
Adj. reward
$392
Spread
0.3%
24h move
2.4%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$2.5K
Resolves
15d
Outcome prices
Yes 34¢ · No 66¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$2.07/ day
Your score
255
Competing
61255
Your share
0.4%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$61.3K of competing score currently resting within 3.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $500/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 3.5¢, min size $200, midpoint 0.34, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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Non-custodial, read-only analytics for Polymarket liquidity rewards. Flowlayer never holds, moves, or touches your funds.

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