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Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

Oil < $80; R Senate · Resolves Nov 4, 2026 · Rank #13 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

14.5/ 100Low risk
Volatility+1.3 pts
24h move 0.5%severity 4/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+10.6 pts
24h volume $7.7Kseverity 35/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+0.8 pts
spread 0.2%severity 4/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+1.8 pts
resolves in 15dseverity 12/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$500
Adj. reward
$428
Spread
0.2%
24h move
0.5%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$7.7K
Resolves
15d
Outcome prices
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$17.86/ day
Your score
255
Competing
6887
Your share
3.6%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$6.9K of competing score currently resting within 3.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $500/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 3.5¢, min size $200, midpoint 0.02, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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Non-custodial, read-only analytics for Polymarket liquidity rewards. Flowlayer never holds, moves, or touches your funds.

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