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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Flávio Bolsonaro · Resolves Oct 26, 2026 · Rank #4 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

9/ 100Low risk
Volatility+0.2 pts
24h move 0.1%severity 1/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+1.7 pts
24h volume $459.1Kseverity 6/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+0.4 pts
spread 0.1%severity 2/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+6.7 pts
resolves in 6dseverity 44/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$1K
Adj. reward
$910
Spread
0.1%
24h move
0.1%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$459.1K
Resolves
6d
Outcome prices
Yes 77¢ · No 23¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$1.24/ day
Your score
358
Competing
288568
Your share
0.1%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$288.6K of competing score currently resting within 6.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $1K/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 6.5¢, min size $150, midpoint 0.77, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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Non-custodial, read-only analytics for Polymarket liquidity rewards. Flowlayer never holds, moves, or touches your funds.

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