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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Flávio Bolsonaro <4% · Resolves Oct 26, 2026 · Rank #41 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

23.8/ 100Low risk
Volatility+7.0 pts
24h move 3.0%severity 20/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+6.1 pts
24h volume $60Kseverity 20/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+4.0 pts
spread 1.0%severity 20/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+6.7 pts
resolves in 6dseverity 44/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$232
Adj. reward
$177
Spread
1.0%
24h move
3.0%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$60K
Resolves
6d
Outcome prices
Yes 43¢ · No 57¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$13.86/ day
Your score
358
Competing
5635
Your share
6.0%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$5.6K of competing score currently resting within 6.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $232/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 6.5¢, min size $100, midpoint 0.42, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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