Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

Oil < $85; R Senate · Resolves Nov 4, 2026 · Rank #14 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

15.3/ 100Low risk

Volatility+3.3 pts

24h move 1.4%severity 9/100 · weight 35%

Liquidity / depth+8.6 pts

24h volume $18.8Kseverity 29/100 · weight 30%

Spread width+1.6 pts

spread 0.4%severity 8/100 · weight 20%

Time to resolution+1.8 pts

resolves in 15dseverity 12/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Capital posted

Target spread (max 3.5¢)

1.0¢

Quote

Projected daily reward

$13.85/ day

Your score: 255
Competing: 8955
Your share: 2.8%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$9K of competing score currently resting within 3.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $500/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 3.5¢, min size $200, midpoint 0.02, pool) is live from Polymarket.