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Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

OpenAI · Resolves Oct 1, 2026 · Rank #14 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

8.4/ 100Low risk
Volatility+2.7 pts
24h move 1.1%severity 8/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+4.9 pts
24h volume $102.9Kseverity 16/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+0.4 pts
spread 0.1%severity 2/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+0.4 pts
resolves in 26dseverity 3/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$471
Adj. reward
$431
Spread
0.1%
24h move
1.1%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$102.9K
Resolves
26d
Outcome prices
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$41.73/ day
Your score
302
Competing
3112
Your share
8.9%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$3.1K of competing score currently resting within 4.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $471/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 4.5¢, min size $200, midpoint 0.13, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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Non-custodial, read-only analytics for Polymarket liquidity rewards. Flowlayer never holds, moves, or touches your funds.

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