Will Lacy and Marlon have between 50 and 99 Warzone deaths during the marathon?

50-99 · Resolves Oct 1, 2026 · Rank #33 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

34.7/ 100Medium risk

Volatility+3.5 pts

24h move 1.5%severity 10/100 · weight 35%

Liquidity / depth+10.8 pts

24h volume $6.7Kseverity 36/100 · weight 30%

Spread width+20.0 pts

spread 15.0%severity 100/100 · weight 20%

Time to resolution+0.4 pts

resolves in 26dseverity 3/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Capital posted

Target spread (max 4.5¢)

1.0¢

Quote

Projected daily reward

$263/ day

Your score: 302
Competing: 0
Your share: 100.0%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$0 of competing score currently resting within 4.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $263/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 4.5¢, min size $50, midpoint 0.46, pool) is live from Polymarket.